Author Topic: 2015 Hugo Awards Announced  (Read 3595 times)

adrianh

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2015 Hugo Awards Announced
« on: August 23, 2015, 03:33:46 AM »
TL;DR: Puppies of all varieties roundly trounced.

Official page: http://www.thehugoawards.org/hugo-history/2015-hugo-awards/

Live blog: http://io9.com/its-a-party-were-liveblogging-the-2015-hugo-awards-1725933125

It's going to be interesting to see how this plays out — not looking forward to multiple years of "no award".

TrishEM

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Re: 2015 Hugo Awards Announced
« Reply #1 on: August 23, 2015, 08:58:31 PM »
I'm hoping that all the discussions about the Hugos this year will encourage more people to participate in the nomination process next year, which should make it harder to game the system. I used to just wait for the final ballot and never nominate, because I assumed that other people who had read more broadly in the field would do a better job at nominating than I could. Now I don't think I should do that anymore, so I'll just have to try to read more new stuff and less of the old favorites, and take note of what strikes me.

Unblinking

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Re: 2015 Hugo Awards Announced
« Reply #2 on: September 09, 2015, 03:01:17 PM »
I'm not convinced that greater nomination numbers will keep collusion from sweeping the ballot, because the problem is that collusion requires a lot less numbers than a bunch of random people voting for whatever they actually liked.  I think that if that were the only factor, the numbers would have to be increased tenfold to make a real difference (just making up numbers but I think it would need to be a large increase.

However, one interesting development is that Sad Puppies 4 has been announced for next year, run by Kate Paulk, and if the announcement is taken at face value it will actually be a recommendation list like the organizers of SP3 pretended their venture was and will include 10ish entries per category which makes it a very different thing, and it is supposed to be based on recommendations from fans of Sad Puppies rather than being mostly a list of the organizers' buddies. 

I would be very surprised if Rabid Puppies didn't chug on with the exact same strategy as before, because I don't think Theodore Beale ever cared about the award in the first place.  He would've been happy however the outcome as long as people were yelling.

Also, the rules that govern the Hugos can be changed.  Two interesting rule changes passed the vote at WorldCon this year.  They won't become actual rule changes unless they are ratified at WorldCon next year, which will probably depend on whether next year is another train wreck.  Those rules are meant to make voter collusion much less effective (and incidentally will also work against shadowy secret voting cabals that are so shadowy there is no evidence that they actually exist).

Fenrix

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Re: 2015 Hugo Awards Announced
« Reply #3 on: September 10, 2015, 07:50:14 AM »

I'm not convinced that greater nomination numbers will keep collusion from sweeping the ballot, because the problem is that collusion requires a lot less numbers than a bunch of random people voting for whatever they actually liked.  I think that if that were the only factor, the numbers would have to be increased tenfold to make a real difference (just making up numbers but I think it would need to be a large increase.


Chaos Horizon https://chaoshorizon.wordpress.com/ has done some analysis of this. IIRC they were in that 5x to 10x range to eliminate the Puppy influence we saw in the 2015 nominations. I'd have to go back and do some more reading here. I'm behind on their analysis. Unblinking, with your love of numbers, I think you'd dig that site if you're not already reading it.


However, one interesting development is that Sad Puppies 4 has been announced for next year, run by Kate Paulk, and if the announcement is taken at face value it will actually be a recommendation list like the organizers of SP3 pretended their venture was and will include 10ish entries per category which makes it a very different thing, and it is supposed to be based on recommendations from fans of Sad Puppies rather than being mostly a list of the organizers' buddies. 


One of the disingenuous things about SP4 is (from the initial things I've read from their organizers) they are pretending it's not a slate, but they intend to rank those top 10 recommendations from 1 to 10 so if their minions just so happen to pick the top 5...
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Re: 2015 Hugo Awards Announced
« Reply #4 on: September 10, 2015, 11:05:53 AM »
One of the disingenuous things about SP4 is (from the initial things I've read from their organizers) they are pretending it's not a slate, but they intend to rank those top 10 recommendations from 1 to 10 so if their minions just so happen to pick the top 5...

That had crossed my mind as a possibility, which is partly why I say "if taken at face value".  That would be an easy way to try to make it look like not a slate while actually making it a slate.  I also think that the re-use of the Sad Puppies brand name says something.  If they actually just wanted a recommended reading list, why use that name again, the name of the group that made this Hugo year what it was?  The most obvious answer is that they think that the brand recognition will get them followers.  I am guessing that the use of the name alone will draw anger from people who assume they are aiming to collude again, and even if they don't mean to suggest collusion, them using the brand name of a brand that has been known for selling crap sandwiches kind of implies that they're still going to be selling crap sandwiches, even if they say specifically that their sandwiches are 100% feces free.

If I were in their shoes, and trying to make it an actual recommended reading list I would do two things:
1.  I would not use the same brand name.
2.  I would implement some kind of technical solution to avoid the valid criticism of rank-ordering the 10 entries.  Maybe set up a page so that, when it's loaded, would always load the same 10 stories in a list, but would list them in a random order so that every time someone loaded the page the order was completely arbitrary and different than the last time. 

Chaos Horizon https://chaoshorizon.wordpress.com/ has done some analysis of this. IIRC they were in that 5x to 10x range to eliminate the Puppy influence we saw in the 2015 nominations. I'd have to go back and do some more reading here. I'm behind on their analysis. Unblinking, with your love of numbers, I think you'd dig that site if you're not already reading it.

Interesting!  Thanks for sharing that.  I'd think 5x-10x is plausible IF the Sad Puppy supporters numbers remain constant.  If anti-colluders are trying to rally with larger numbers, I find it implausible that pro-colluders would not be aiming to rally their numbers too.  Especially with this last year as such an effective proof that their strategy "works", if "work" is defined to mean getting specific works on the ballot even if they've got little chance of actually winning the rocket.
« Last Edit: September 10, 2015, 11:09:57 AM by Unblinking »

Fenrix

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Re: 2015 Hugo Awards Announced
« Reply #5 on: September 10, 2015, 11:38:17 AM »

2.  I would implement some kind of technical solution to avoid the valid criticism of rank-ordering the 10 entries.  Maybe set up a page so that, when it's loaded, would always load the same 10 stories in a list, but would list them in a random order so that every time someone loaded the page the order was completely arbitrary and different than the last time. 


Listing them alphabetically by title or author would be a simpler technical solution. While some people would still grab the first five, removing rankings and ordering them in a reasonable fashion grants legitimacy.

Also, since you're being classy, I'll plug it for you. Everyone reading this thread should go and support the Kickstarter for the Long List Anthology: https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/753351971/long-list-anthology-0

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Re: 2015 Hugo Awards Announced
« Reply #6 on: September 10, 2015, 11:56:12 AM »
Also, since you're being classy, I'll plug it for you. Everyone reading this thread should go and support the Kickstarter for the Long List Anthology: https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/753351971/long-list-anthology-0

Thank you.  :)  When other people are plugging their own stuff I can sometimes have a low threshold for it being too much, so I probably tend to overcompensate by underpromoting.  :P