Escape Artists
The Lounge at the End of the Universe => Gallimaufry => Topic started by: Thaurismunths on November 05, 2008, 12:30:11 AM
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So, I voted for Obama, as did my family, and most all of my friends.
I still think McCain is going to win.
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So, I voted for Obama, as did my family, and most all of my friends.
I still think McCain is going to win.
So long as the polls were even mostly accurate, they don't show McCain with much of a path to victory. If Obama takes one 'swing' state he pretty much can't win. But we'll know pretty soon.
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So, I voted for Obama, as did my family, and most all of my friends.
I still think McCain is going to win.
So long as the polls were even mostly accurate, they don't show McCain with much of a path to victory. If Obama takes one 'swing' state he pretty much can't win. But we'll know pretty soon.
I'm sitting on the Virginia poll site right now and Obama's still behind by 8. But, as I understand it, the big counties have yet to weigh in... Oh, wait. Obama just took NY.
Yeah, commanding lead of the electoral votes.
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So, I voted for Obama, as did my family, and most all of my friends.
I still think McCain is going to win.
So long as the polls were even mostly accurate, they don't show McCain with much of a path to victory. If Obama takes one 'swing' state he pretty much can't win. But we'll know pretty soon.
I'm sitting on the Virginia poll site right now and Obama's still behind by 8. But, as I understand it, the big counties have yet to weigh in... Oh, wait. Obama just took NY.
Yeah, commanding lead of the electoral votes.
Ohio just went to Obama. It's over. Now it's just the margin and congressional races.
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So, I voted for Obama, as did my family, and most all of my friends.
I still think McCain is going to win.
So long as the polls were even mostly accurate, they don't show McCain with much of a path to victory. If Obama takes one 'swing' state he pretty much can't win. But we'll know pretty soon.
I'm sitting on the Virginia poll site right now and Obama's still behind by 8. But, as I understand it, the big counties have yet to weigh in... Oh, wait. Obama just took NY.
Yeah, commanding lead of the electoral votes.
Ohio just went to Obama. It's over. Now it's just the margin and congressional races.
I think it's a bit early, but the BBC is starting to talk about a "landslide" victory.
VA is sill on the fence. 75% reporting, 50/50 Obama/McCain.
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I'm just waiting to see how many votes my candidate can get...
It'd be nice to get 3%, but I doubt it.
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Wow, no election thread on the EA forums??? After Steve's outro??
My family and I stayed up until after Obama's acceptence speech. We all volunteered on the Obama campaign to some degree, so of course we were pretty happy with the way things turned out. We were also very moved by McCain's gracious concession, and Obama's rousing acceptence. The man has a huge job ahead of him, and needs our thoughts and prayers, among other things.
Americans, there's work to do...
Mod's note: This post started this thread, the forum sorts posts chronologically so it was pushed down when merged with posts from the poll thread.
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WOOOOOO!
Proud to have voted in this election, especially it being my first.
Looong road ahead of us but I'm confident in my country.
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Wow, no election thread on the EA forums??? After Steve's outro??
My family and I stayed up until after Obama's acceptence speech. We all volunteered on the Obama campaign to some degree, so of course we were pretty happy with the way things turned out. We were also very moved by McCain's gracious concession, and Obama's rousing acceptence. The man has a huge job ahead of him, and needs our thoughts and prayers, among other things.
Americans, there's work to do...
Some of us were talking in the vote thread, I'll merge those here in a minute.
I'll repeat what I twittered: Barack Obama promises kids puppy, wins election.
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i love puppies
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i love puppies
No More Puppies! What America Needs Now is Kittens!
Kittens, and Hope. Personally, I think we're doing pretty well tonight.
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i love puppies
No More Puppies! What America Needs Now is Kittens!
Kittens, and Hope. Personally, I think we're doing pretty well tonight.
The last one was Socks during the Clinton Presidency, and I'm not sure when or if there were any before that.
Somewhere in my house there's a wooden Easter Egg with that cat's pawprint from one of the White House Easter Egg Rolls when I was much younger.
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It's over at last!
It's over at last!
Thank God Almighty, It's over at last!
Sorry MLK, but you have so much else to celebrate, I'm sure you won't mind.
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It's over at last!
It's over at last!
Thank God Almighty, It's over at last!
Sorry MLK, but you have so much else to celebrate, I'm sure you won't mind.
Well, I don't know what will happen now. We've got some difficult days ahead. But it really doesn't matter with me now, because I've been to the mountaintop.
And I don't mind.
Like anybody, I would like to live a long life. Longevity has its place. But I'm not concerned about that now. I just want to do God's will. And He's allowed me to go up to the mountain. And I've looked over. And I've seen the Promised Land. I may not get there with you. But I want you to know tonight, that we, as a people, will get to the promised land!
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Went for a run at 4:40 this morning, picked up a copy of the NYT on my way back (which, if I was older would mean I was showing my age, but since I'm younger is just a quirk of journalism being my chosen profession). I think I'll keep this one. They broke out the inch tall font.
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I live in a freaky un-American time zone, and I arrived at a bar frequented by Westerners at 10:30 Wednesday morning. I found Obama had already won Ohio and the Democrats filling the bar were giddy and jubilant.
I'm happy that the Bradley Effect has been shown to Not Actually Exist. I'm happy that we're not in for a Florida 2000 situation. And I'm happy that, for the first time ever, the guy I voted for won.
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I'm an Obama supporter, because I think he'll be a decent president. But I'm afraid his more vocal and rabid supporters who believe he's going to be a GREAT and TRANSFORMATIVE president are going to set the bar so high on expectations that he'll have trouble hurtling it in four years. He's been hammering "change" so hard that in four years, if we've had excellent stewardship without any great revolutionary change, I'm afraid those extravagant promises that couldn't realistically be kept will overshadow the positives next go-around.
Still, I actively chose not to vote 4 years ago because I honestly believed that neither candidate was capable of actually being even a decent president, so I'm still more optimistic now than I was then.
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So very happy and relieved. I was at an election party last night. People were ecstatic. Its wonderful being in a room of jubilant people, the positive vibes are life affirming.
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I live in a freaky un-American time zone, and I arrived at a bar frequented by Westerners at 10:30 Wednesday morning. I found Obama had already won Ohio and the Democrats filling the bar were giddy and jubilant.
I'm happy that the Bradley Effect has been shown to Not Actually Exist. I'm happy that we're not in for a Florida 2000 situation. And I'm happy that, for the first time ever, the guy I voted for won.
The Brady Effect wasn't talked about nearly as much prior to this election as it has been during this election. What actually started it was a pollster who was wrong and couldn't swallow his pride. He didn't take absentee votes into account.
Hopefully everyone can stop talking the economy down now. Few news outlets reported on the plumetting gas prices recently.
Congratulations, Mr. Obama. I hope you do a good job. But I would prefer a president who isn't a rock star. Start acting presidential and you may change my opinion of you. I want some substance in my leaders. I'll give you time and a chance.
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Hopefully everyone can stop talking the economy down now. Few news outlets reported on the plumetting gas prices recently.
Gas prices fell because A. people started driving drastically less, decreasing demand in the US market, B. the market crash caused futures traders to believe that gas wouldn't sell at it's previous valuation, and C. the currency is undergoing deflation.
From NPR's Planet Money (http://www.npr.org/blogs/money):
Listeners have been wondering about the fall of gas prices in some places. "Do the dropping gas prices in OH have anything to do w/the economy?" writes Terri Weiss. "Avg. price is $3.35 here but other places have shortages."
My daily dose of currency news from Brown Brother Harriman just landed.
Analyst Win Thin writes that yes, prices are going down because producers are worried about a global recession. Three months ago, crude sold for nearly $150 a barrel, pushing prices the pump well past $4. That same barrel is going for closer to $87 now, partly because the U.S. has more crude and gas stockpiled than expected, partly because no one's sure consumers can still take the hit.
How low might crude go? OPEC may meet on November 18, when the Nigerian energy minister says the group may debate a cut in quotas. Read: less crude, less gas, higher prices. Because OPEC members won't let the bottom drop out if they can help it.
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I found it amusing when people jumped in the futures market because they thought they could get rich on crude oil. Of course experienced futures traders were short selling. A lot of people went broke when their $145/barrel oil dropped under $100.
My point was that in an election cycle when people are unhappy with the current regime, good news gets the back burner. When everyone, including Bush's own party, wants change, no one wants to hear that things are getting even a little better. I don't have a problem with this, it's sound selection of stories to run. News outlets need ratings. I'm just glad that we can start hearing positive news early next year. Maybe the negative will slow down.
I personally think nearly all career politicians are crooks. Any idealists who make it to office generally either get corrupted or thrown under the bus by their own party.
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I live in a freaky un-American time zone, and I arrived at a bar frequented by Westerners at 10:30 Wednesday morning. I found Obama had already won Ohio and the Democrats filling the bar were giddy and jubilant.
I'm happy that the Bradley Effect has been shown to Not Actually Exist. I'm happy that we're not in for a Florida 2000 situation. And I'm happy that, for the first time ever, the guy I voted for won.
The Brady Effect wasn't talked about nearly as much prior to this election as it has been during this election. What actually started it was a pollster who was wrong and couldn't swallow his pride. He didn't take absentee votes into account.
Hopefully everyone can stop talking the economy down now. Few news outlets reported on the plumetting gas prices recently.
Congratulations, Mr. Obama. I hope you do a good job. But I would prefer a president who isn't a rock star. Start acting presidential and you may change my opinion of you. I want some substance in my leaders. I'll give you time and a chance.
What do you mean by presidential, exactly. Do you mean exactly like every other politician? Because one of the reasons I voted for him is he seemed to me to be somewhat atypical.
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I personally think nearly all career politicians are crooks. Any idealists who make it to office generally either get corrupted or thrown under the bus by their own party.
I think better of Obama, but time will tell.
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I found it amusing when people jumped in the futures market because they thought they could get rich on crude oil. Of course experienced futures traders were short selling. A lot of people went broke when their $145/barrel oil dropped under $100.
My point was that in an election cycle when people are unhappy with the current regime, good news gets the back burner. When everyone, including Bush's own party, wants change, no one wants to hear that things are getting even a little better. I don't have a problem with this, it's sound selection of stories to run. News outlets need ratings. I'm just glad that we can start hearing positive news early next year. Maybe the negative will slow down.
I personally think nearly all career politicians are crooks. Any idealists who make it to office generally either get corrupted or thrown under the bus by their own party.
Well, gas prices really did their falling when we were in the middle of a Credit Crunch, which is a much bigger story than gas prices dropping. The Dow was in the middle of losing 20% of it's value in a month. Global markets were in meltdown. Gas prices rising over the summer were a big story because there was a lot of oxygen in the news — the campaign was stable and the markets were fairly stable, and gas prices were rising a lot higher than anyone had ever paid for them, even adjusting for inflation — it was literally new(s). Them dropping is a story, but it's not as big of one, especially in the midst of such a huge crisis.
And yes, the crisis mainly hit Wall Street and not quote unquote "Main Street", whose quotidian existence is more effected by gas prices, but a lot of people saw their 401k's nosedive. Lower gas prices were a smaller story in the same way that a murder is a smaller story when the building next door collapses and kills a few hundred people.
Now, I'm not saying all news outlets operate on a great set of journalistic ethics — most local TV news stations are pretty bad (Puppies! Household Item Could Kill You(?)! Kids These Days Are Out Of Control!), but they were right to prioritize the crisis over lower gas prices.
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I personally think nearly all career politicians are crooks. Any idealists who make it to office generally either get corrupted or thrown under the bus by their own party.
I think better of Obama, but time will tell.
I actually agree with both of you. Every major political figure in England in my lifetime has at best let me down and at worst spent their term actively damaging the country so my default response with politicians of every stripe is cynicism with a light seasoning of anger:)
That being said, I think better of him too.
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I personally think nearly all career politicians are crooks. Any idealists who make it to office generally either get corrupted or thrown under the bus by their own party.
I think better of Obama, but time will tell.
I actually agree with both of you. Every major political figure in England in my lifetime has at best let me down and at worst spent their term actively damaging the country so my default response with politicians of every stripe is cynicism with a light seasoning of anger:)
That being said, I think better of him too.
I hear all this. I get it.
That said, for the first time in my life, I feel like America is about us, the people, and not just about the politician in office (though he certainly matters, too).
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What do you mean by presidential, exactly. Do you mean exactly like every other politician? Because one of the reasons I voted for him is he seemed to me to be somewhat atypical.
Similar to some of the things I disliked about Bill Clinton. I don't want an MTV President. I've said I'm willing to see how he does in office. I understand that he was campaigning.
I didn't watch any coverage of the election last night. I checked it on the net before I went to bed. It was a non-event for me. Obama won bigger than expected was the biggest story. Again, I'm jaded with the two party system. The best thing I can say about Obama is that he wasn't chosen by the political machine.
As to the news coverage, I would have liked to see a story about how the dropping gas prices cost some people money. The previously mentioned band wagonners who started investing in the futures market. But, as in politics, I'm jaded with most of the news media.
I am not bitter about Obama winning. I know a lot of people that are. He wasn't my choice, but he won. I didn't queston the legitamacy of Bush's presidency and I won't question Obama's, especially since he won in such a landslide.
What I really want right now is for my cat, Zathras, to decide he's had enough attention.
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Obama won bigger than expected was the biggest story.
Depends what you expected, I suppose. I've spent the last week moderately confident of a win in the 350 to 375 range. And (depending on where you look), it seems to be 349 with 26 EV's still up in the air, so the big story for me is that I'm clearly reading the right sources (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/).
As to the news coverage, I would have liked to see a story about how the dropping gas prices cost some people money. The previously mentioned band wagonners who started investing in the futures market. But, as in politics, I'm jaded with most of the news media.
I was just reading a story at lunch, as it happens. Apparently, our local bus system buys 60% of its fuel several months in advance*, so they can balance their budget more easily. And, as the general trend is for prices to rise, this has the side effect of saving them money more often than not, but right now they're burning gas that cost them $3.82/gal when the pumps are dispensing it for under $2.00.
What I really want right now is for my cat, Zathras, to decide he's had enough attention.
Is everyone in your family named Zathras? That must get confusing.
*That is, they enter into a contract to buy X number of thousands of gallons several months in the future, but at current prices. They don't have a big warehouse somewhere filled with gasoline.
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"There are 10 of us, all of family Zathras, each one named Zathras. Slight differences in how you pronounce. Zathras, Zathras, Zathras... You are seeing now?"
Lots of major trucking companies buy their fuel the same way. It's called "tank share". They buy tens of thousands of gallons of diesel from a chain or chains of truckstops. They generally have a clause written in to protect them if the prices fall.
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Gas prices are such a non-news story. If the price of gas is going to affect you (like a trucking company), you don't need the news to tell you about it. You see what the price is all day long. The only thing you need to hear about is international news and the current price of oil once a week. If, after hearing that, you're still surprised by the direction of the price, you're an idiot. The effects of the price a gas can be newsworthy.
That being said, there hasn't been a moment this year when I didn't know the average price of gas in the US within $.30. Given that I don't give a shit what the price is where in the country where I fill up, I find it to be rather annoying. NPR has decided I need to know, so I know.
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he Brady Effect wasn't talked about nearly as much prior to this election as it has been during this election. What actually started it was a pollster who was wrong and couldn't swallow his pride. He didn't take absentee votes into account.
Given Bradley was supposed to win by more than 6% and lost by 5% or so, I find your reason a bit hard to believe. Find us a link, please.
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he Brady Effect wasn't talked about nearly as much prior to this election as it has been during this election. What actually started it was a pollster who was wrong and couldn't swallow his pride. He didn't take absentee votes into account.
Given Bradley was supposed to win by more than 6% and lost by 5% or so, I find your reason a bit hard to believe. Find us a link, please.
Looking
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Gas prices are such a non-news story. If the price of gas is going to affect you (like a trucking company), you don't need the news to tell you about it. You see what the price is all day long. The only thing you need to hear about is international news and the current price of oil once a week. If, after hearing that, you're still surprised by the direction of the price, you're an idiot. The effects of the price a gas can be newsworthy.
That being said, there hasn't been a moment this year when I didn't know the average price of gas in the US within $.30. Given that I don't give a shit what the price is where in the country where I fill up, I find it to be rather annoying. NPR has decided I need to know, so I know.
Really? Then why were people in a panic and talking about not being able to feed their families because of high gas prices?
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Really? Then why were people in a panic and talking about not being able to feed their families because of high gas prices?
That was why they were news. Usually they aren't.
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he Brady Effect wasn't talked about nearly as much prior to this election as it has been during this election. What actually started it was a pollster who was wrong and couldn't swallow his pride. He didn't take absentee votes into account.
Given Bradley was supposed to win by more than 6% and lost by 5% or so, I find your reason a bit hard to believe. Find us a link, please.
Looking
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/10/the_bradley_effect_selective_m.html
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he Brady Effect wasn't talked about nearly as much prior to this election as it has been during this election. What actually started it was a pollster who was wrong and couldn't swallow his pride. He didn't take absentee votes into account.
Given Bradley was supposed to win by more than 6% and lost by 5% or so, I find your reason a bit hard to believe. Find us a link, please.
Looking
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/10/the_bradley_effect_selective_m.html
The polls they're citing were commissioned by Bradley's opponent, and they were a lot closer than other polls, so I'm not sure how much weight they should have. I'm leaning towards thinking that the Bradley effect was smaller than people thought, and has (hopefully) since become statistically insignificant.
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he Brady Effect wasn't talked about nearly as much prior to this election as it has been during this election. What actually started it was a pollster who was wrong and couldn't swallow his pride. He didn't take absentee votes into account.
Given Bradley was supposed to win by more than 6% and lost by 5% or so, I find your reason a bit hard to believe. Find us a link, please.
Looking
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/10/the_bradley_effect_selective_m.html
The polls they're citing were commissioned by Bradley's opponent, and they were a lot closer than other polls, so I'm not sure how much weight they should have. I'm leaning towards thinking that the Bradley effect was smaller than people thought, and has (hopefully) since become statistically insignificant.
I'll agree with that!
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Really? Then why were people in a panic and talking about not being able to feed their families because of high gas prices?
That was why they were news. Usually they aren't.
No, that's when people were ignoring reality.
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Gas prices are such a non-news story. If the price of gas is going to affect you (like a trucking company), you don't need the news to tell you about it. You see what the price is all day long. The only thing you need to hear about is international news and the current price of oil once a week. If, after hearing that, you're still surprised by the direction of the price, you're an idiot. The effects of the price a gas can be newsworthy.
That being said, there hasn't been a moment this year when I didn't know the average price of gas in the US within $.30. Given that I don't give a shit what the price is where in the country where I fill up, I find it to be rather annoying. NPR has decided I need to know, so I know.
Really? Then why were people in a panic and talking about not being able to feed their families because of high gas prices?
That would be why I said the effects can be newsworthy!
But as a story about the price, It's not newsworthy, because any idiot can look at the prices and see they've gone up. This is why it's not a story when the prices go down. Anybody can look at the signs and see they've gone down. It's not a story to say, "remember how we said people were having trouble buying food? Well, not so much now."
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I disagree. If it is monumental that the prices climbed so high, then the rapid, dramatic drop in prices would be news as well.
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I disagree. If it is monumental that the prices climbed so high, then the rapid, dramatic drop in prices would be news as well.
Not when something even more monumental is going on. There are only so many column inches, and the falling gas prices could be dealt with by a graph halfway through a general economy story.
That said, both the Washington Post and NY Times have sold out today, so people want souvenirs. I'm glad I got mine early.
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yeah, new york times sold out here too. I am hoping i can find a copy if I poke around all the local stores.
I did pick up a copy of the town newspaper, though, which of course had its own nice big flashy cover story, so that's something.
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I'm going to shift away from gas prices momentarily to talk about marriage and children.
California's Proposition 8 looks like it's succeeding. People are still holding out for absentee and provisional ballots so I still have hope, but not much. This would amend the California constitution to define marriage as being between one woman and one man.
Arizona's Proposition 102 clearly passed. This amends the Arizona constitution to define marriage as being between one woman and one man.
Florida's Amendment 2 ridiculously clearly passed. This amends the Florida constitution to define marriage as being between one man and one woman.
Arkansas' Proposed Initiated Act 1 passed. This bans unmarried cohabitating couples from fostering or adopting children under the age of 18.
All of this sucks. But there is some good news.
Connecticut's Question 1 failed. If it had succeeded, there would have been an opportunity to use the resulting constitutional convention to amend the Connecticut constitution to ban the same-sex marriages the CT Supreme Court just declared legal and necessary.
King County Charter Change Amendment 2 passed, adding sexual orientation, gender identity and expression, and disability to King County, Washington's protections from discrimination.
So I'm thrilled with an Obama victory, but it is bittersweet with the further institutionalization of discrimination at the state level.
EDIT: Florida's Amendment gets to change the Florida constitution. Oops.
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Florida's Amendment 2 ridiculously clearly passed. This amends the Arizona constitution to define marriage as being between one man and one woman.
Man the folks in Florida just get to totally fuck with the people in Arizona.
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:P thinkin the same.
i'm disappointed that amendment 2 was passed. the only county in florida that voted no to the amendment was Monroe, which includes Key West... not surprising. EVERY other county voted yes.
Arkansas' Proposed Initiated Act 1 passed. This bans unmarried cohabitating couples from fostering or adopting children under the age of 18.
these people have no business raising children before they are "adults" anyway. i dont see the problem with this.
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Arkansas' Proposed Initiated Act 1 passed. This bans unmarried cohabitating couples from fostering or adopting children under the age of 18.
these people have no business raising children before they are "adults" anyway. i dont see the problem with this.
:D
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Arkansas' Proposed Initiated Act 1 passed. This bans unmarried cohabitating couples from fostering or adopting children under the age of 18.
these people have no business raising children before they are "adults" anyway. i dont see the problem with this.
I'm confused by your statement. Was my syntax unclear? The "unmarried cohabitating couples" are adults. This initiative prevents them from adopting or fostering children who are younger than 18. This isn't about adolescents raising children. This is about adults living together without being married, which affects straight and gay couples alike (although the initiative was conceived to target same-sex couples since same-sex marriage is also banned), being unable to adopt or foster any child who is under 18. The Arkansas Supreme Court struck down a ban on gay couples fostering children in 2006, and this was the next step.
Or were you implying that people who are in relationships aren't adults until they get married?
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Arkansas' Proposed Initiated Act 1 passed. This bans unmarried cohabitating couples from fostering or adopting children under the age of 18.
these people have no business raising children before they are "adults" anyway. i dont see the problem with this.
I'm confused by your statement. Was my syntax unclear? The "unmarried cohabitating couples" are adults. This initiative prevents them from adopting or fostering children who are younger than 18. This isn't about adolescents raising children. This is about adults living together without being married, which affects straight and gay couples alike (although the initiative was conceived to target same-sex couples since same-sex marriage is also banned), being unable to adopt or foster any child who is under 18. The Arkansas Supreme Court struck down a ban on gay couples fostering children in 2006, and this was the next step.
Or were you implying that people who are in relationships aren't adults until they get married?
I think it was the former, that was what I laughed about. Thought it was a joke.
It sucks that sooooooo many people are so small minded to pass those kinds of laws.
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Arkansas' Proposed Initiated Act 1 passed. This bans unmarried cohabitating couples from fostering or adopting children under the age of 18.
these people have no business raising children before they are "adults" anyway. i dont see the problem with this.
I'm confused by your statement. Was my syntax unclear? The "unmarried cohabitating couples" are adults.
The way you initially phrased it, it sounds like the law bans under-18s from adopting (though I think it's clear what you actually meant).
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yea thats what i thought u meant. I thought it was couples under the age of 18 cant adopt, not unmarried couples cant adopt children who are under 18.
my bad :)
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I'm confused by your statement. Was my syntax unclear?
C'mon, Ddog. You've been around here long enough to know that while this group will respectfully entertain opinions from all up and down the political and social spectrum, we're sticklers for clarity of expression.
Although, mysteriously, we give a pass to posters who refuse to use capital letters. I admit that I don't completely understand that... ???
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I'm confused by your statement. Was my syntax unclear?
C'mon, Ddog. You've been around here long enough to know that while this group will respectfully entertain opinions from all up and down the political and social spectrum, we're sticklers for clarity of expression.
Although, mysteriously, we give a pass to posters who refuse to use capital letters. I admit that I don't completely understand that... ???
One of those posters is a Mod and has specifically asked for a waiver for this offense.
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he Brady Effect wasn't talked about nearly as much prior to this election as it has been during this election. What actually started it was a pollster who was wrong and couldn't swallow his pride. He didn't take absentee votes into account.
Given Bradley was supposed to win by more than 6% and lost by 5% or so, I find your reason a bit hard to believe. Find us a link, please.
Looking
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/10/the_bradley_effect_selective_m.html
This article is written by a guy who worked for Bradley's opponent and was using his own numbers. Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect#Barack_Obama_and_a_reverse_Bradley_effect) uses a much wider example and says that the Effect was probably around 3% before 1996, but that the effect is maybe 0.3% now. Meaning it's not a factor now, but was before.
I would actually like to see a break down of the numbers from this race to see if we can finally put a stake in this one.
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Although, mysteriously, we give a pass to posters who refuse to use capital letters. I admit that I don't completely understand that... ???
i've explained my reasons (http://forum.escapeartists.net/index.php?topic=1646.msg28096#msg28096), it's a handicap with a goal.
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Although, mysteriously, we give a pass to posters who refuse to use capital letters. I admit that I don't completely understand that... ???
i've explained my reasons (http://forum.escapeartists.net/index.php?topic=1646.msg28096#msg28096), it's a handicap with a goal.
You don't mention capital letters (or the lack thereof) in the post you link to.
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keeping off topic for a moment, my natural tendency is toward long sentences as well. this writing style, without capitals, forces you to be exceptionally clear to make sense. short, single topic sentences in concise paragraphs. it doesn't always work out and can wind up backfiring but it keeps you mindful of your writing.
this must be one of those cases where it didn't work out.
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Ah. Well, see, writing without capitals does help you improve your writing style. But it also makes it very, very easy for readers to skip short sentences. Capital letters aren't there for writers, they are there for readers. I would bet you that if you used capitals, I would have seen that shorter middle sentence.
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forces the reader to actually pay attention :)
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Th3r3 4re 10t5 0f w4y5 2 4ce r34d3rs 2 p4y att3nt10n. Tht dsn't nccssrly mk thm gd ds.
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yeah, it makes it tough to skim these posts quickly.
i try to use enumerated lists and repetition when it's important and always eliminate unnecessary words but it's usually just a matter of looking at misunderstood post to see how it could be restructured. since i started doing this i've reduced my passive voice quite a bit.
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Go ahead and smack me with the chair for this one!
http://www.theonion.com/content/video/obama_win_causes_obsessive
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forces the reader to actually pay attention :)
Or, in other words, it's allows the writer to save the effort of thinking about how they write by making the reader have to do harder work.
Seriously, if you think writing without caps improves your writing, write without caps and then add them in later. Capsless posts are not pointless, but they are inconsiderate.
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Or, in other words, it's allows the writer to save the effort of thinking about how they write by making the reader have to do harder work.
Seriously, if you think writing without caps improves your writing, write without caps and then add them in later. Capsless posts are not pointless, but they are inconsiderate.
Or you could try leaving out the punctuation too i think this would make it even more important for the writer to force themselves to write clearly you could even think about not doing paragraphs or spacingbetweenthewordswhatdoyouguysthink
Edit: I could swear we've had this conversation before, do any of the other old-timers remember one?
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Although, mysteriously, we give a pass to posters who refuse to use capital letters. I admit that I don't completely understand that... ???
One of those posters is a Mod and has specifically asked for a waiver for this offense.
That wasn't intended as a critical comment; I was just noting it as one of the charming quirks of our local folkways.
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Or, in other words, it's allows the writer to save the effort of thinking about how they write by making the reader have to do harder work.
Seriously, if you think writing without caps improves your writing, write without caps and then add them in later. Capsless posts are not pointless, but they are inconsiderate.
Or you could try leaving out the punctuation too i think this would make it even more important for the writer to force themselves to write clearly you could even think about not doing paragraphs or spacingbetweenthewordswhatdoyouguysthink
We could revert completely to the earliest days of written communication in the West and leave out paragraphs, punctuation, spaces between words and vowels... ;D lkslkthsIthnk
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you could even think about not doing paragraphs or spacingbetweenthewordswhatdoyouguysthink
Edit: I could swear we've had this conversation before, do any of the other old-timers remember one?
i think you're acting deliberately silly. =)
weight training works when you carry enough to make your muscles work without straining them. punctuation placement & paragraph structure is something writers need to work on, capitalization is a set of rules you follow by rote.
everybody has things that bug them. i find fully quoting the post directly above yours both unnecessary & cluttering. if you bring up a little known story or movie then a link to wikipedia (or the equivalent) is just polite, lack of capitalization reinforces it since a hyperlink accents the proper noun instead.
i haven't seen this conversation before but i took a six/eight month hiatus early on. lost my account too (http://forum.escapeartists.net/index.php?topic=27.msg2352#msg2352), not sure what happened there.
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soo... how about that election? :P
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soo... how about that election? :P
Yes, I seem to have hijacked my own thread. :o
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anyone see the south park on the election?
im surprised they were able to do that episode RIGHT AFTER the election! I'm guessing they made two versions and customized it the night before.
YEA! CHANGE!
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you could even think about not doing paragraphs or spacingbetweenthewordswhatdoyouguysthink
Edit: I could swear we've had this conversation before, do any of the other old-timers remember one?
[...]
everybody has things that bug them. i find fully quoting the post directly above yours both unnecessary & cluttering. if you bring up a little known story or movie then a link to wikipedia (or the equivalent) is just polite, lack of capitalization reinforces it since a hyperlink accents the proper noun instead.
i haven't seen this conversation before but i took a six/eight month hiatus early on. lost my account too (http://forum.escapeartists.net/index.php?topic=27.msg2352#msg2352), not sure what happened there.
I edit my college's newspaper, so I've probably got an overdeveloped case of editor's red pen. I also am constantly writing for publication, so I always try to write like I would in the paper, except with a point of view, personality, and with many fewer quotes.
I find my brain glazes over pretty much any modern text that doesn't follow the normal conventions of english writing. If you're putting enough effort into it to release it into the public it's not that much more effort to make it easy for your reader.
Anyway, to give getting back on topic a shot, I'll put my story on the elections below.
The 20-month campaign for president ended last Tuesday with Barack Obama victorious. He will be this nation’s first black president. He won in New York (carrying Manhattan by 85 percent, the Bronx by 88 percent, Brooklyn by 79 percent, and Queens by 74 percent) and South Carolina, Virginia and Iowa, Florida and Ohio. He won in states that Democrats had not carried since the Civil Rights Movement, fulfilling the dreams of many who still bear the scars of that conflict. The Democrats picked up at least five seats in the Senate and at least 18 seats in the House. In California, Proposition 8 passed, which enacted an amendment to the California Constitution to ban gay marriage.
One admittedly informal, measure of NYIT student interest in the Election was that every free New York Times provided through the first year program on November 5th was gone from the Main Building and Student Activity Building by 9:45 AM, usually copies are available well into the evening. Both the New York Times and the Washington Post sold out of their Nov. 5 copies, with the Post printing a special edition later in the day. Another would be the hundreds of status updates posted to Facebook in the hours after the election were called, mostly reacting positively to Obama’s win though with some reacting negatively to the win.
Michael Leykum, a senior and self-identified conservative, posted to Facebook at 2 AM on Nov. 5 that he “ hopes our newest celebrity--er... President... lives up to all the hype. Alas, liberals, your savior has arrived! Let’s see what he’s able to accomplish...” Obama supporters like Evan Lepore posted that he “has never heard a speech that impeccably perfected delivered in front of so many people.”
Most of the student body has grown up knowing only two presidents, Bill Clinton and George Bush, and were in middle or elementary during the last transition. The period after the election but before the
President-Elect is sworn in on January 20th is called the Transition. Under calm times this is a busy period where the president-elect decides who will make up his cabinet, begins to fill several thousand politically appointed jobs in the Executive Branch of the Government, and plans for his legislative initiatives. President-Elect Obama heads into the White House in the midst of a financial crisis, two foreign wars, and he takes over from a president who has the lowest approval ratings in modern polling, which includes Nixon’s polls during Watergate. Polls taken before the election also find that the percentage of Americans that think the U.S. is on the right track hovers around 10 percent.
World-wide reaction was overwhelming positive. The British paper The Guardian had an editorial saying: “They did it. They really did it. So often crudely caricatured by others, the American people yesterday stood in the eye of history and made an emphatic choice for change for themselves and the world.” However, Russia took advantage of the news to announce that it would be positioning missiles near Poland in response to US efforts to build a missile shield in Eastern Europe.
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I find my brain glazes over pretty much any modern text that doesn't follow the normal conventions of english writing. If you're putting enough effort into it to release it into the public it's not that much more effort to make it easy for your reader.
block indentation used to be pretty unconventional just a decade ago youngun'. the medium has changed, so has the message. the written word has never been used for this type of immediate, casual conversation. never before have we had universal access to different type faces, fonts, and colours.
this is a period in time that will create future normal conventions.
anyone see the south park on the election?
im surprised they were able to do that episode RIGHT AFTER the election! I'm guessing they made two versions and customized it the night before.
YEA! CHANGE!
looking at the polls, they may have only had the Obama episode ready to go. it would have been pretty easy to switch shirts between the winning & loosing sides, maybe have victory/loosing shouts for both in the can.
soo... how about that election? :P
you mean that long, bacchanal deathmarch to whitehouse? the one that's over?
yeah, it's over. =)
it was entertaining and the implications are interesting but, for right now, as long as people keep talking about something else that's what my fatigued mind will pay attention to.
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anyone see the south park on the election?
im surprised they were able to do that episode RIGHT AFTER the election! I'm guessing they made two versions and customized it the night before.
YEA! CHANGE!
looking at the polls, they may have only had the Obama episode ready to go. it would have been pretty easy to switch shirts between the winning & loosing sides, maybe have victory/loosing shouts for both in the can.
well not so much that as they had the setting where Obama gave his speech, which wasnt set up till that morning (i think), AND they took lines out of his speech that he had said the previous night
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yeah, the speeches were definitely added. looks like everyone was breaking out their new toys for election night: holograms and green screens and electronic maps, oh my.
Obama is president elect for one night and we're already seeing unprecedented innovation from the states. =P
edit: they were completely unprepared (http://www.thrfeed.com/2008/11/obama-south-par.html) for a McCain victory.
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Congratulations, Mr. Obama. I hope you do a good job. But I would prefer a president who isn't a rock star. Start acting presidential and you may change my opinion of you. I want some substance in my leaders. I'll give you time and a chance.
What does this actually mean?? The Republicans came up with this comment to counter Obama getting crowds over 50,000 when McCain's were around 1,000.
How else is he a rock star?
I don't see him screaming and jumping on stage. He isn't trashing hotel rooms. We doesn't have any girls less than half his age running around his bedroom. Wait, he does have those two that call him Daddy.
Anyway, how is he a rock star?
(Apologies to the community in general. I tried to leave it alone, but there are some things I just can't let lie.)
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you mean that long, bacchanal deathmarch to whitehouse?
A death march characterised by copious alcohol, plenty of sex and general merrymaking? Well, I suppose, if you have to go out it might as well be on a high note...
But somehow, I suspect the phrase you were looking for is Bataan death march (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bataan_Death_March).
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i'm not sure, anybody here watch the daily show and remember?
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i'm not sure, anybody here watch the daily show and remember?
There were several variations, but the one you're thinking of was The Long, Flat, Seemingly Endless Bataan Death March To The White House (http://crooksandliars.com/2008/04/24/the-daily-show-the-long-flat-seemingly-endless-bataan-death-march-to-the-white-house/).
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ah yes, that makes sense.
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i'm not sure, anybody here watch the daily show and remember?
There were several variations, but the one you're thinking of was The Long, Flat, Seemingly Endless Bataan Death March To The White House (http://crooksandliars.com/2008/04/24/the-daily-show-the-long-flat-seemingly-endless-bataan-death-march-to-the-white-house/).
My favorite was 2004's "Clusterfuck to the White House". I think it was 2004 anyway.
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A death march characterised by copious alcohol, plenty of sex and general merrymaking?
I think you're thinking of the last year of the Clinton Administration... :o
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Congratulations, Mr. Obama. I hope you do a good job. But I would prefer a president who isn't a rock star. Start acting presidential and you may change my opinion of you. I want some substance in my leaders. I'll give you time and a chance.
What does this actually mean?? The Republicans came up with this comment to counter Obama getting crowds over 50,000 when McCain's were around 1,000.
How else is he a rock star?
I don't see him screaming and jumping on stage. He isn't trashing hotel rooms. We doesn't have any girls less than half his age running around his bedroom. Wait, he does have those two that call him Daddy.
Anyway, how is he a rock star?
(Apologies to the community in general. I tried to leave it alone, but there are some things I just can't let lie.)
He's only rockstarish in that his message resonates so strongly with people.
This I, for one, see as a wonderful thing. A leader who inspires.. rather than is merely tolerated.
Obama has substance. He isn't all glamor. Now he'll have the chance to demonstrate that.
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i'm not sure, anybody here watch the daily show and remember?
There were several variations, but the one you're thinking of was The Long, Flat, Seemingly Endless Bataan Death March To The White House (http://crooksandliars.com/2008/04/24/the-daily-show-the-long-flat-seemingly-endless-bataan-death-march-to-the-white-house/).
My favorite was 2004's "Clusterfuck to the White House". I think it was 2004 anyway.
They used it again this year. And when the economy tanked, they titled that "Clusterfuck to the Poorhouse".
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He's only rockstarish in that his message resonates so strongly with people.
This I, for one, see as a wonderful thing. A leader who inspires.. rather than is merely tolerated.
Obama has substance. He isn't all glamor. Now he'll have the chance to demonstrate that.
As I said, I will wait and see what substance there is. How much more of a chance can I give someone that isn't my choice?
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He's only rockstarish in that his message resonates so strongly with people.
This I, for one, see as a wonderful thing. A leader who inspires.. rather than is merely tolerated.
Obama has substance. He isn't all glamor. Now he'll have the chance to demonstrate that.
As I said, I will wait and see what substance there is. How much more of a chance can I give someone that isn't my choice?
I was just asking what you meant when you said it. I just don't understand what makes him a rock star and why it would be an insult.
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By rock star, I think he's more flash than substance. We'll see.
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By rock star, I think he's more flash than substance. We'll see.
If you ever wanted to see what kind of mind he had it was out there and easy to find. Unlike Bush who had everything from his school record to all papers from his failed companies sealed, Obama's stuff was online. He taught for 12 years at the University of Chicago, a pretty decent school. Copies of his exams and the answers are online at the NYTimes.com.
If you want to know if there is any substance, all you need to do is read.
exam from December, 1997 (http://graphics.nytimes.com/packages/pdf/politics/2008OBAMA_LAW/conlaw3.obama.1997.fall.pdf?scp=1&sq=obama%20exam%20%22Constitutional%20Law%20III%22%20sample%20answers&st=cse)
Memo with sample answers and a critique of class performance on the test from December, 1997 (http://graphics.nytimes.com/packages/pdf/politics/2008OBAMA_LAW/conlaw3.obama.1997.fall.memo.pdf)
It actually is a fun read.
There's a shitload more of them. I couldn't find the list of links, so finding the answers to each test was a bit of a pain in the ass. I didn't want to list them unless they were paired up.
More tests (http://query.nytimes.com/search/sitesearch?query=obama+exam+%22Constitutional+Law+III%22+sample+answers&submit.x=0&submit.y=0&submit=sub)