Escape Artists
Escape Pod => Episode Comments => Topic started by: eytanz on May 05, 2014, 11:29:10 AM
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EP445: Black Swan Oracle (http://escapepod.org/2014/05/04/ep445-black-swan-oracle/)
by Ferrett Steinmetz (http://www.theferrett.com/)
read by Amy Robinson (http://amyelk.com/)
This story was originally published in the What Fates Impose anthology (http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00FE7MDE0/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=390957&creativeASIN=B00FE7MDE0&linkCode=as2&tag=matweller-20&linkId=MVV6OJPCKYXSASUN)
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(http://escapepod.org/wp-images/podcast-mini4.gif)Listen to this week's episode (http://traffic.libsyn.com/escapepod/EP445_BlackSwanOracle.mp3)
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Interesting story. The oracle is, in fact, her own worst enemy which is what drives her inexorably towards suicide. The funniest part of it is that her frustration over being unable to find the question she cannot find an answer to is completely unnecessary. All she needed to do was ask her own system what the black swan question is. Either it will lead her to the question or she will find that that is the question.
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I enjoyed the story, although I didn't expect the ending. It went from a story about her looking for the black swan to an ending about how she knows she'll never find it before she dies. But the last bit -- "but then you'll never know" -- is the clarion call for anyone who does something because otherwise they'll never know if the answer is X or Y.
As someone who works in digital advertising, it's a constant wonder to me just how much information is publicly available (or purchase-able) that people refuse to admit that they're sharing, or that they even know is out there. I mean, the Doubleclick LSO alone...
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Throughout this story, I kept thinking "STATISTICS DO NOT WORK THAT WAY". I mean, I see how the story is about how data mining betrays a lot more about yourself than you might think, combined with a more traditional "character knows how they will die" storyline. Okay. But the oracle's "system" breaks pretty much every rule of predictive models, mathematics, and how complex the world is. And then the story just never really pulled me in. Talk about "nothing happened, no one changed". The Oracle starts off contemptuous of humanity and almost resigned to her death. Then she stereotypes and verbally abuses some people. Finally she ends up...contemptuous of humanity and almost resigned to her death!
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Based on Skeletondragon's comments I'd say this story falls into the same category for me as the last one, EP444: Those Are Pearls That Were His Eyes. Nothing happened, no one changed... but all in a really interesting way. Whether or not this is the way statistics work, I really enjoyed the Oracle's exploration of how people will turn out based on their past choices/experiences/actions. Is all entirely plausible? Probably not, but it sure engaged me.
I did find the ending a little disappointing as I wanted to know what the Black Swan Question would be. I had hopes that it would come up by the end of the tale, and instead got the, "We'll never know..." (cue eerie music). I think part of the reason I wanted the question to show up was to see what Ferrett thought the unanswerable question would be. I do really like Boxless's suggestion that asking about the Black Swan Question IS the Black Swan Question.
Still, as with most of Mr. Steinmetz's stories, overall I quite enjoyed this one.
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Yes, indeed. I agree, though this might be seen as another "nothing happened" story, it did so in an interesting way. The story ended to abruptly to my liking, I would have loved to hear either the black swan question or that the Oracle finally manages to wrest herself away from...herself(?).
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I like this story. I thought the reading was top notch too. Plot resolution and real statistics aside, I think this story is more of a character tragedy - the curse of Cassandra - that sort of thing. More modern myth than straight up sci-fi. I was reminded of Arthur C. Clarke's fantastic story "The Last Question", in which generations of ever more powerful super computers ponder whether or not entropy can be reversed. Because that question in Clarke's story served for humanity (and post-humanity) the same purpose as the Oracle's much-desired Black Swan Question.
The Last Question is about the fate of the universe. Black Swan Oracle is about fate on a more personal, individual level. None of the supplicants (particularly the actress or writer) could really garner any advantage or change their fates with the information the Oracle is able to give them - because our own natures write our fates. Just as the Oracle's writes hers.
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Wasn't "the last question" by Assimov? (I seem to real MultiVac being mentioned?
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hansv, thank you for that, happy to learn about the MultiVac. I loved Black Swan Oracle though I agree with skeletondragon's comment. Statistics do not work that way but then again, hey, people don't turn into roaches or rhinos or elephants for no reason. And how does warp drive work, anyway? I especially liked her conversations with the monks and her inability to be anything other than what she became.
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Ya I came out of this story a bit different than most posters.
I liked the story.
I do agree that the author should have consulted a math teacher/professor and learnt the terminology, but the idea of predictive algorithms is well known.
I didn't see this as a "nothing happened" story. It took it until near the final sentence, but I think the Oracle saw into herself with the line "but you'll never know". As a master of determinism, she was waiting for the right dataset to prove to herself wrong, a clear example of the strange paradox of the human mind. But I saw that line (which I thought would have been a better last sentence) as her epiphany. She won't kill herself, and that changes her odds.
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I'd say that this was a well written and well read story that I enjoyed, but the Oracle already knew that...
While the quality was clearly there and I could feel that is was believable and rooted I disliked the fact that it was another 'non-ending' story. Like the Oracle herself I sometimes crave resolution too and far too many short stories end on an open ended, non-resolution. It is wearisome and unsatisfying.
All in all I like Ferrett's work here but implore that endings are sought in future writing.
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Yes Asimov wrote the Last Question. He apparently said it was his favorite story. Drabblecast did an amazing production of it for their 200th episode years ago, I highly recommend it even if you've read the story before. Also has a huge cast that all do really well including Phil Rossi, Frank Key, Cheyenne Wright, Mur Lafferty, Steve Eley and others. Such an awe-inspiring, thought-provoking story... it never leaves my mp3 player.
http://www.drabblecast.org/2011/03/11/drabblecast-200-the-last-question-by-isaac-asimov/
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Yes, thank you "TheFunkeyGibbon" that's what i have been trying to say before, "i crave resolution and far to many short stories are open ended" says it better than I did...
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Wow, I really liked this one until I read Skeletondragon's comment. Now I'm really not so sure! :o
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Throughout this story, I kept thinking "STATISTICS DO NOT WORK THAT WAY". I mean, I see how the story is about how data mining betrays a lot more about yourself than you might think, combined with a more traditional "character knows how they will die" storyline. Okay. But the oracle's "system" breaks pretty much every rule of predictive models, mathematics, and how complex the world is. And then the story just never really pulled me in. Talk about "nothing happened, no one changed". The Oracle starts off contemptuous of humanity and almost resigned to her death. Then she stereotypes and verbally abuses some people. Finally she ends up...contemptuous of humanity and almost resigned to her death!
...and even if you're like me, and you don't notice any of these factual flaws about the story, instead just taking it at face value...
If The Oracle simply doesn't kill herself (which is entirely up to her no matter how many 9s are after the decimal point), doesn't she become the Black Swan she was looking for? It's not like the appointed moment will arrive, and the maths will rise out of her monitors, take physical form, and drag her screaming into their realm of streaming numbers, is it?
Of course, I've never been one to go for strict determinism, so maybe I'm projecting. :)
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It's not like the appointed moment will arrive, and the maths will rise out of her monitors, take physical form, and drag her screaming into their realm of streaming numbers, is it?
No, you've hit the nail on the head. Predictive models only display probabilities, and they work best on large scales. For the case of an individual person, even if you could know their entire genetic code and their medical history and their family's medical history, you STILL wouldn't be able to say for certain whether or not they'd get cancer in their lifetime, let alone whether they'd commit suicide or be a bad parent. I can't think of a situation where knowing their online shopping history would give you enough information to definitively predict their future. Especially the Oracle, who created the system, should know both that it can't have 100% accuracy, and how she could alter her behavior to decrease the likelihood of her demise. She just needs to change the inputs to her model.
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This story sucked me in and dragged me along so well that I didn't even notice the abuse of statistics until Skeletondragon brought it up. I heard it as a metaphor for the effect the kind of predictive power granted by "big data" analytics has on the people and institutions who wield it. And thinking about that put me in mind of the quote:
A fake fortuneteller can be tolerated. But an authentic soothsayer should
be shot on sight. Cassandra did not get half the kicking around she deserved.
-- R.A. Heinlein
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That's why they call it science fiction, friends! :D
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Loved this story. The underlying Buddhist philosophy struck me: reaching goals can't fulfill us. We can't find peace through knowledge, nor can we find it through attaining something we desire. All that desire eventually leads to despair. And in the end, we are pretty much the same as everyone else, whether we think we are or not.
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I liked MOST of the story. The idea of someone who is skilled in data mining using Big Data to become an old-school prophet is a neat one. Futuretelling always has some interesting wrinkles, such as how she tried her best to avoid the future she saw but ended up walking right into it anyway.
Am I the only one who thought that the character DID find the Black Swan Question, the one her Buddhist friend asked. Okay, so I don't remember exactly what the question was, but it was something about questioning her motivations, yes? And what does she do--she kicks the guy to the curb, tells him to get the hell out. Because, like so many seeking truth or enlightenment she's not willing to exercise the flexibility of mind and sacrifice of control to accept the thing that's right in front of her. She doesn't want the truth, she wants the tranquility of mind that she imagines the truth will give her. But you don't find tranquility of mind by obsessively seeking something, you find tranquility of mind by striving for tranquility of mind. To take her tactic toward that is like trying to find Buddhist enlightenment by buying products on the home shopping channel--the path does not even go in the same direction as the goal, let alone having any chance of reaching it.
She also had an extremely flawed method of trying to find an enlightening question. I would've thought she would've had a solid background in Game Theory, but it doesn't seem that way because the way she set up the rules only people who can generate huge amounts of disposable money can request her services. So you're generally going to end up with people like multibillionaires for which that amount of money is a paltry sum, or you're going to end up with desperate gamblers who are throwing the money in the hopes of getting a return on their investment to make more. Those aren't the gruops that I would expect a profound and unprecedented question to come from. If she'd asked me I would've suggested she talk to some philosophers, monks, recluses, hermits, people who devote their lives to charity (like Mother Theresa if she were alive) because those are going to be the people most likely to not fit your consumerism-based predictive models.
Overall, I thought the story had a lot of promise, and I thought it was very interesting, but I was hoping that it would go somewhere in the end other than her continuing to wallow in self-pity at her own situation. But that didn't happen. Her rejection of the question given right to her is a telling moment but I was hoping for a moment of change in the story .
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I had no problem with this story exceeding the current limitations of our knowledge of statistics and algorithms. Science fiction always pushes current technology beyond where it is and beyond where it can ever go. Back when radiation was less understood than it is today, we wrote lots of stories about monsters being created through exposure to radiation, radioactive spiders, etc. Heck, Frankenstein did the same thing with electricity. And, today, you can get any plot you want by granting your Deus Ex Machina a "quantum consciousness" or some other such thing. To me, this story fell right into that tradition.
As to my thoughts on the story itself, I liked it. It made me think of Godel's Incompleteness Theorem. The math of it is about 6 stages beyond anything I could understand, but from what I gather from the simplified version I have read, Godel basically proved that as a matter of logic, it is impossible for there to be a 100% complete and 100% consistent mathematical system. No matter what axioms you choose to build your math, there will always be something outside of it that you cannot prove or predict. That, in the context of this story, a Black Swan question does exist. It must exist. Not as a limit to the Oracle's powers. Or even as a limit to her algorithms. But as a limit to the nature of math itself. Cool.
I have no idea if the author had this in mind or not, but that's what jumped out at me.
(Now waits for someone who actually understands math to come tell me how I completely did not get the Incompleteness Theorem.)
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But the oracle's "system" breaks pretty much every rule of predictive models, mathematics, and how complex the world is.
I thought that this was very funny. I could forgive problem in the story, because I am not an expert in predictive models or mathematics, and I really enjoyed this story. I thought the oracle was stange at the beginning, but by the end he had me hooked.
BUT being a biologist I can perfectly understand Skeletondragon's feelings. This is exactly how I feel about every story having to do with evolution/mutants/transgenic people or animals
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But the oracle's "system" breaks pretty much every rule of predictive models, mathematics, and how complex the world is.
I thought that this was very funny. I could forgive problem in the story, because I am not an expert in predictive models or mathematics, and I really enjoyed this story. I thought the oracle was stange at the beginning, but by the end he had me hooked.
BUT being a biologist I can perfectly understand Skeletondragon's feelings. This is exactly how I feel about every story having to do with evolution/mutants/transgenic people or animals
I can see both sides of the coin. It would probably bother me more if I were a statistician. But enjoying a lot of science fiction depends on being able to choose where to allow a little handwavium past the logic sensors. I can't do that with every story, but was fine with this one. As a software engineer I tend to have to make that decision in a lot of stories because a lot of writers use computer hackers as though they were literal wizards.
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I enjoyed this story and was able to look past all of the issues with predictive models and the like. For me, the oracle was a compelling enough character (flaws and all) that I was very interested in how she became the oracle and in whether or not she would be able to break free of her "predicted path." We always have a choice, even when all the odds seem so very stacked against us.
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wow!
I totally loved this.
exactly the nerdyness that makes me smile with joy :)
stories written and narrated like this are the reason I keep donating to and coming back to escape pod.
keep up the good work guys
thanks so much
....
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But the oracle's "system" breaks pretty much every rule of predictive models, mathematics, and how complex the world is.
I thought that this was very funny. I could forgive problem in the story, because I am not an expert in predictive models or mathematics, and I really enjoyed this story. I thought the oracle was stange at the beginning, but by the end he had me hooked.
BUT being a biologist I can perfectly understand Skeletondragon's feelings. This is exactly how I feel about every story having to do with evolution/mutants/transgenic people or animals
I can see both sides of the coin. It would probably bother me more if I were a statistician. But enjoying a lot of science fiction depends on being able to choose where to allow a little handwavium past the logic sensors. I can't do that with every story, but was fine with this one. As a software engineer I tend to have to make that decision in a lot of stories because a lot of writers use computer hackers as though they were literal wizards.
Sounds like we should create a thread for venting where science fiction gets our profession wrong. Probably at the top of my pet peeves is hackers who break into traffic signals and make all the indications green at the same time. Roll into that they do it quickly and typically while moving makes it extra hilarious.
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But the oracle's "system" breaks pretty much every rule of predictive models, mathematics, and how complex the world is.
I thought that this was very funny. I could forgive problem in the story, because I am not an expert in predictive models or mathematics, and I really enjoyed this story. I thought the oracle was stange at the beginning, but by the end he had me hooked.
BUT being a biologist I can perfectly understand Skeletondragon's feelings. This is exactly how I feel about every story having to do with evolution/mutants/transgenic people or animals
I can see both sides of the coin. It would probably bother me more if I were a statistician. But enjoying a lot of science fiction depends on being able to choose where to allow a little handwavium past the logic sensors. I can't do that with every story, but was fine with this one. As a software engineer I tend to have to make that decision in a lot of stories because a lot of writers use computer hackers as though they were literal wizards.
Sounds like we should create a thread for venting where science fiction gets our profession wrong. Probably at the top of my pet peeves is hackers who break into traffic signals and make all the indications green at the same time. Roll into that they do it quickly and typically while moving makes it extra hilarious.
Yes! My company designs processing boards that go into intersection control cabinets and there's some major flaws in that. Most of them are not wireless capable. Many of them are not even networked to multiple intersections.
What would actually be potentially realistic is if someone figured out how to spoof a police siren radio signal. Some cities (including the area I live) have intersection traffic lights that immediately switch to green in the direction from which an emergency vehicle is approaching--I presume it's a radio signal the police car/ambulance/firetruck broadcasts ahead of it. So, theoretically if you knew how to produce the exact signal the traffic light is looking for, you could do it. If they do it smartly, presumably it's not just a simple signal but some kind of handshake protocol that can't just be rebroadcast, maybe the day's date run through a particular encryption key or something.
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But the oracle's "system" breaks pretty much every rule of predictive models, mathematics, and how complex the world is.
I thought that this was very funny. I could forgive problem in the story, because I am not an expert in predictive models or mathematics, and I really enjoyed this story. I thought the oracle was stange at the beginning, but by the end he had me hooked.
BUT being a biologist I can perfectly understand Skeletondragon's feelings. This is exactly how I feel about every story having to do with evolution/mutants/transgenic people or animals
I can see both sides of the coin. It would probably bother me more if I were a statistician. But enjoying a lot of science fiction depends on being able to choose where to allow a little handwavium past the logic sensors. I can't do that with every story, but was fine with this one. As a software engineer I tend to have to make that decision in a lot of stories because a lot of writers use computer hackers as though they were literal wizards.
Sounds like we should create a thread for venting where science fiction gets our profession wrong. Probably at the top of my pet peeves is hackers who break into traffic signals and make all the indications green at the same time. Roll into that they do it quickly and typically while moving makes it extra hilarious.
Yes! My company designs processing boards that go into intersection control cabinets and there's some major flaws in that. Most of them are not wireless capable. Many of them are not even networked to multiple intersections.
What would actually be potentially realistic is if someone figured out how to spoof a police siren radio signal. Some cities (including the area I live) have intersection traffic lights that immediately switch to green in the direction from which an emergency vehicle is approaching--I presume it's a radio signal the police car/ambulance/firetruck broadcasts ahead of it. So, theoretically if you knew how to produce the exact signal the traffic light is looking for, you could do it. If they do it smartly, presumably it's not just a simple signal but some kind of handshake protocol that can't just be rebroadcast, maybe the day's date run through a particular encryption key or something.
There are two primary technologies for pre-emption. One (which is on its way out) is an emitter that sends a specific combination of visible and UV light. This combination is different for every vehicle. It's keyed to specific vehicles so that only ones on the approved list can utilize the pre-emption. It also is a protection against abuse, as it's easy to see patterns out of scale with emergency calls. The second technology would be something that is more wireless but is keyed to a GPS unit installed with a vehicle that can detect turn signals. Again vehicle specific and changes the signals green for specific approaches and red for the rest.
Neither technology would allow a hacker on the fly to make them all green at the same time. There's an autonomous box whose job is just to look at the outputs in the field and runs a logic test. Can this signal indication remain green at the same time as that one? If not, then it dumps the signal to flashing operation. At best they could spoof pre-emption, assuming they know the product brand, have jurisdiction specific codes, among all kinds of fiddly details.
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Or you could just jump into a township police motor pool yard, copy that info from every car on the lot and USB stick it for later use. Or just borrow cop cars for your nefarious moments. Or just commit crimes in a large vehicle with a snowplow on the front and skip worrying about lights altogether -- a.k.a.: the A-Team protocol.
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If The Oracle simply doesn't kill herself (which is entirely up to her no matter how many 9s are after the decimal point), doesn't she become the Black Swan she was looking for?
Alternatively, if she kills herself BEFORE the specified date, she also becomes the black swan.
Walking away from her statistics and prescience and algorithms would be akin to a sighted person intentionally blinding themselves. Not an easy decision.
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I wasn't a huge fan of this one, and it had only a little bit to do with the simplistic view of statistic and data mining/modeling. More bothering was the use of tired tropes like wise buddhists and superficial actresses, that stuff really takes me out of the story. The problem presented is interesting in itself, but a nice thought experiment is not automatically a good story.
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More bothering was the use of tired tropes like wise buddhists and superficial actresses,
I don't know about wide buddhists, but I wouldn't call superficial actresses a trope--the job selects for superficiality on a large part, not that individual actresses can't buck the trend, but I wouldn't expect it on a large scale. Kind of like corrupt politicians or dishonest salesmen, the job rewards certain traits more than others.
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More bothering was the use of tired tropes like wise buddhists and superficial actresses,
I don't know about wide buddhists, but I wouldn't call superficial actresses a trope--the job selects for superficiality on a large part, not that individual actresses can't buck the trend, but I wouldn't expect it on a large scale. Kind of like corrupt politicians or dishonest salesmen, the job rewards certain traits more than others.
That might be true enough (although it sounds a bit dismissive), but cliches with some truth behind them are nevertheless cliches - and the problem arises when the characters are reduced to those cliches. It's fine to have a corrupt politician in your story - it's not fine to use politician as a shorthand for corrupt. At least for me. I guess wide buddhist might be a side effect of all that sitting around on pillows ...
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Well I had a very tough time with the whole concept of the Oracle's prediction for herself. Dodgy statistics aside, all she has to do is Not Kill herself. I, for one, find this a very easy thing to do. ;) But, in all seriousness, I understand that for people who are depressed and suicidal, this is not so easy. On the other hand, the Oracle knew this depression was coming for a long time, in which case, she should have sought out professional help. So, for that reason alone, this one didn't work for me.
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I could have used a parental guidance warning on this one. A few too many unnecessary "fucks" for me to try and listen with kids in the car.
When I finally got to listen to it, I thought it was ok, the premise was good but the execution left something to be desired for me. I think the premise left itself the opportunity for massive creativity in the types of questions and answers that she could have received and given, and I was a bit underwhelmed by that section, and the ending was fine but very predictable. I also agree with the earlier comments about the overly simplistic descriptions of her methods.