Pascal's Wager Debunked video

[qwints]

ABSOLUTE FULL DISCLOSURE:
1) I am an atheist
2) I met the host (Matt) at a local atheist group meet-up last night
3) I am posting this video at forums (fora?) I frequent to try to attract new viewers to his TV show

So, first a little context. The Atheist Experience is an Austin public-access show that shows on Sundays. Two hosts talk about recent news involving secular and atheist issues then talk to callers. I went to a meet-up at the Dog and Duck where I some of the people who do the show as well as some other cool people. During the conversation, Matt mentioned an explanation he had given of Pascal's wager a few months back that had been well received. As it happened, it was from one of three episodes of the show I had seen. I told him I'd find the clip and put it up on you-tube. (All their shows are licensed for free non-commercial use.)

I'm posting this video here because one, it's entertaining, and two, I think it's something that might spark an interesting discussion. So without further ado:
<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/v9WRG4e6m2s&amp;hl=en" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="bbc_link bbc_flash_disabled new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/v9WRG4e6m2s&amp;hl=en</a>

[stePH]

Haven't watched the video yet (later when I get home), but I think the simplest way to debunk Pascal's wager is to ask "which god am I supposed to believe in?"

[edit]
Just watched it; noted that my point was one of the first things mentioned in replying to the caller. 

[Darwinist]

Excellent video.  Matt seems like a sharp guy.   

We don't have shows like that on my cable system, but I do have at least 10 religious channels.  It's nice to hear some reason on the airwaves. 

[Thaurismunths]

Hey, cool show.
I'm really pleased to see people make an argument and be pleasant about it. They could have laughed the caller off the show, hung up on him, gotten angry, or been abusive, but instead they were ready and able to make informed rebuttals.
Where can we find more of this show?

[qwints]

It's on Sundays 3-4:30 on Channel 10 in Austin.
The show's website is http://www.atheist-experience.com.
There's a podcast of the audio feed at http://www.atheist-experience.com/podcast.php.
Lastly, there is a large number of episodes on Google video. Just search for "The Atheist Experience."

[oddpod]

thare are athiest groops?

supose it just goas to show some of the cultural diferances between the uk and the states, having an athiest  groop over hear wuld be a bit like having a "i ware brown socks" groop . its a total non ishue

[qwints]

thare are athiest groops?

supose it just goas to show some of the cultural diferances between the uk and the states, having an athiest  groop over hear wuld be a bit like having a "i ware brown socks" groop . its a total non ishue

Let's see ... our President has endorsed the teaching of creationism alongside evolution in the classroom, one of our presidential candidates has said the US is a Christian nation and a certain game show host turned movie maker has said "Science leads you to killing people." Secularism is far more secure in Europe than in the US. In fact, I think that countries like England and France have gone too far in limiting individual religious expression. Most atheist groups in the US are focused on fighting for the separation of church and state instead of promoting atheism.

To use your analogy, we just want the right to wear brown socks and to prevent the government from spending our tax dollars to promote other kinds of footwear.

[stePH]

thare are athiest groops?

supose it just goas to show some of the cultural diferances between the uk and the states, having an athiest  groop over hear wuld be a bit like having a "i ware brown socks" groop . its a total non ishue

Let's see ... our President has endorsed the teaching of creationism alongside evolution in the classroom, one of our presidential candidates has said the US is a Christian nation and a certain game show host turned movie maker has said "Science leads you to killing people."

And yet many Christians in the USA still like to paint themselves as a persecuted minority.  I don't see how they can continue to keep up that ruse, but they do.

[wintermute]

Silly. Don't you know that 94% is a minority?

[Holden]

I'm a Christian, and I agree with the speaker in the video. I especially liked his (Biblical!) point about belief not being an exercise of the will.

[stePH]

Silly. Don't you know that 94% is a minority?

Well, the black South Africans under white rule were, but that's the only such example I can think of.

[Russell Nash]

thare are athiest groops?

supose it just goas to show some of the cultural diferances between the uk and the states, having an athiest  groop over hear wuld be a bit like having a "i ware brown socks" groop . its a total non ishue

Let's see ... our President has endorsed the teaching of creationism alongside evolution in the classroom, one of our presidential candidates has said the US is a Christian nation and a certain game show host turned movie maker has said "Science leads you to killing people."

And yet many Christians in the USA still like to paint themselves as a persecuted minority.  I don't see how they can continue to keep up that ruse, but they do.

We moved into our new place about three months ago.  In that time I have slammed the door in the face of five groups of born-agains.  Some how this makes me the rude one. 

I'm sitting in my living room, doing something the wife asked me to do (the list never ends), and the bell rings.  I have to stop what I'm doing, get quickly cleaned up, and rush to the door.  At the door I find some pompous ass who is going to tell me how everything I believe is wrong and he's right.  I don't understand how what they're doing isn't rude, but what I do is.

[jrderego]

thare are athiest groops?

supose it just goas to show some of the cultural diferances between the uk and the states, having an athiest  groop over hear wuld be a bit like having a "i ware brown socks" groop . its a total non ishue

Let's see ... our President has endorsed the teaching of creationism alongside evolution in the classroom, one of our presidential candidates has said the US is a Christian nation and a certain game show host turned movie maker has said "Science leads you to killing people."

And yet many Christians in the USA still like to paint themselves as a persecuted minority.  I don't see how they can continue to keep up that ruse, but they do.

We moved into our new place about three months ago.  In that time I have slammed the door in the face of five groups of born-agains.  Some how this makes me the rude one. 

I'm sitting in my living room, doing something the wife asked me to do (the list never ends), and the bell rings.  I have to stop what I'm doing, get quickly cleaned up, and rush to the door.  At the door I find some pompous ass who is going to tell me how everything I believe is wrong and he's right.  I don't understand how what they're doing isn't rude, but what I do is.

That's why I always answer the door naked and slicked in goat's blood.

[Russell Nash]

thare are athiest groops?

supose it just goas to show some of the cultural diferances between the uk and the states, having an athiest  groop over hear wuld be a bit like having a "i ware brown socks" groop . its a total non ishue

Let's see ... our President has endorsed the teaching of creationism alongside evolution in the classroom, one of our presidential candidates has said the US is a Christian nation and a certain game show host turned movie maker has said "Science leads you to killing people."

And yet many Christians in the USA still like to paint themselves as a persecuted minority.  I don't see how they can continue to keep up that ruse, but they do.

We moved into our new place about three months ago.  In that time I have slammed the door in the face of five groups of born-agains.  Some how this makes me the rude one. 

I'm sitting in my living room, doing something the wife asked me to do (the list never ends), and the bell rings.  I have to stop what I'm doing, get quickly cleaned up, and rush to the door.  At the door I find some pompous ass who is going to tell me how everything I believe is wrong and he's right.  I don't understand how what they're doing isn't rude, but what I do is.

That's why I always answer the door naked and slicked in goat's blood.

What a great idea, but it would scare the crap out of the delivery guy.

[wintermute]

I've been stopped in the street by such people far more often than I've been doorstepped. But one occasion will always stick in my mind:

It was about 9am on a Saturday. I was working nights at the time, so I'd gotten to be maybe an hour earlier when I hear the doorbell. I pull on a dressing gown and go to answer the door, and (not a word of a lie) the first words out of this guy's mouth were "Oh, I see I've woken you up. Well, I'm not going to apologise." Somehow that made me even less keen to read his little pamphlet.

I suspect that might be the rudest thing anyone's ever done to me.

[jrderego]

thare are athiest groops?

supose it just goas to show some of the cultural diferances between the uk and the states, having an athiest  groop over hear wuld be a bit like having a "i ware brown socks" groop . its a total non ishue

Let's see ... our President has endorsed the teaching of creationism alongside evolution in the classroom, one of our presidential candidates has said the US is a Christian nation and a certain game show host turned movie maker has said "Science leads you to killing people."

And yet many Christians in the USA still like to paint themselves as a persecuted minority.  I don't see how they can continue to keep up that ruse, but they do.

We moved into our new place about three months ago.  In that time I have slammed the door in the face of five groups of born-agains.  Some how this makes me the rude one. 

I'm sitting in my living room, doing something the wife asked me to do (the list never ends), and the bell rings.  I have to stop what I'm doing, get quickly cleaned up, and rush to the door.  At the door I find some pompous ass who is going to tell me how everything I believe is wrong and he's right.  I don't understand how what they're doing isn't rude, but what I do is.

That's why I always answer the door naked and slicked in goat's blood.

What a great idea, but it would scare the crap out of the delivery guy.

it also stains the carpet

[birdless]

I wasn't familiar with Pascal's Wager until now. Wikipedia has a good bit to say about it (it's interesting that, though the argument is obviously flawed, it was groundbreaking territory in probability theory). However, it appears Pascal's Gambit may be being used out of context:

…Pascal was clear [that] the application of his wager rests on the premise that an "honest attempted reason" about God's existence is impossible. Nor did Pascal ask readers to trust in "blind or feigned faith"... the wager was intended only to provide the seed that grows into a full believing life.

I'm a Christian, and I agree with the speaker in the video. I especially liked his (Biblical!) point about belief not being an exercise of the will.

Holden (I'm a Christian, too), are you drawing a dichotomy between faith and belief (I don't think i'd ever thought about it, but i think i could make an argument for that)? Or what biblical reference are you pointing to about belief not being an exercise of the will? Or do you mean our faith/belief is authored by God (Heb. 12:2, among others)? Sorry for the off-topicness... this may should have been asked through a PM, but i thought some others may be interested in the answers.

For those who have been interrupted in their homes by well-intentioned Christians (or whatever), i appreciate what you're saying. I've never been comfortable with the idea of door to door stuff (I don't know why i didn't see it before, but that's worse than telemarketing!), and now i can better expound on my reasons for it. Thanks for that, truly! But in defense of some of these Christians (i would admit it's probably the minority), they are genuinely concerned with where you spend eternity (one of these people would be my dad; please don't throw goat's blood on him if he should show up on your doorstep), and it is their way of showing that they care and expressing their love for their fellow man. So, do with that what you will, but not all of them are out there specifically to annoy you or to simply try to win some points with the "Big Guy" (both of which are wrong motives).

[qwints]

Holden (I'm a Christian, too), are you drawing a dichotomy between faith and belief (I don't think i'd ever thought about it, but i think i could make an argument for that)? Or what biblical reference are you pointing to about belief not being an exercise of the will? Or do you mean our faith/belief is authored by God

Belief not being subject to the will means that you cannot simply decide to believe. In other words, it is possible to try to believe without being able to.You can't wish away doubt. Think of statements like "I want to believe that, but I can't" as an example of this principle. As for it being biblical, a brief look through my concordance didn't turn up any relevant verses. Relevant parables might include that of the mustard seed (small faith moves mountains) or the sower and the soils (some seeds fell on the rock, etc.).

[Holden]

I'm a Christian, and I agree with the speaker in the video. I especially liked his (Biblical!) point about belief not being an exercise of the will.

Holden (I'm a Christian, too), are you drawing a dichotomy between faith and belief (I don't think i'd ever thought about it, but i think i could make an argument for that)? Or what biblical reference are you pointing to about belief not being an exercise of the will? Or do you mean our faith/belief is authored by God (Heb. 12:2, among others)? Sorry for the off-topicness... this may should have been asked through a PM, but i thought some others may be interested in the answers.

I was referring to faith being a gift from God, not something a person can 'decide' to do as an act of will (Eph 2:8-9, Rom 4:16, etc). I've run into some people that don't like me sharing my faith, but if anyone says foul things to me because I speak of Christ, then I can but feel honored.

(Edited to fix quotes)

[birdless]

Holden (I'm a Christian, too), are you drawing a dichotomy between faith and belief (I don't think i'd ever thought about it, but i think i could make an argument for that)? Or what biblical reference are you pointing to about belief not being an exercise of the will? Or do you mean our faith/belief is authored by God

Belief not being subject to the will means that you cannot simply decide to believe. In other words, it is possible to try to believe without being able to.You can't wish away doubt. Think of statements like "I want to believe that, but I can't" as an example of this principle. As for it being biblical, a brief look through my concordance didn't turn up any relevant verses. Relevant parables might include that of the mustard seed (small faith moves mountains) or the sower and the soils (some seeds fell on the rock, etc.).

This is going to take some further thought, but, while i'll definitely grant that not all belief is subject to will, i definitely believe that belief absolutely can be subject to will (i probably should've waited before i posted to put more thought into it, but i figured i'd just shoot from the hip and see what happens). For instance, anytime you take a risk, are you not choosing to believe that you will come out on the better side? Or maybe you could define hope as choosing to believe. I'll put more thought into this, but thought i'd throw that out in the meantime.

[Thaurismunths]

I've been stopped in the street by such people far more often than I've been doorstepped. But one occasion will always stick in my mind:

It was about 9am on a Saturday. I was working nights at the time, so I'd gotten to be maybe an hour earlier when I hear the doorbell. I pull on a dressing gown and go to answer the door, and (not a word of a lie) the first words out of this guy's mouth were "Oh, I see I've woken you up. Well, I'm not going to apologise." Somehow that made me even less keen to read his little pamphlet.

I suspect that might be the rudest thing anyone's ever done to me.

I use to get Jehovahed at a gas station in Detroit.
Things worked out that about once a week I had to get gas before work so I would stop at the first convenient gas station on my route. With out fail, even though it was 5:30 am, there would be a shiny new old-person car backed in to a parking space near the convenience store waiting with immaculately dressed senior citizens watching the pumps. They would wait until they were sure you were filling up your car, and thus stuck at the pump, before presenting you with a copy of the Watchtower and inquiring about your immortal soul.
I was friendly at first, no reason to be rude, but as the encounters neared the double digits I got annoyed with going through the same routine of rejection. Eventually I did the only sensible thing: I started using another gas station.

[Heradel]

Speaking of Evolution: Macroevolution observed in bacteria.

[qwints]

This is going to take some further thought, but, while i'll definitely grant that not all belief is subject to will, i definitely believe that belief absolutely can be subject to will (i probably should've waited before i posted to put more thought into it, but i figured i'd just shoot from the hip and see what happens). For instance, anytime you take a risk, are you not choosing to believe that you will come out on the better side? Or maybe you could define hope as choosing to believe. I'll put more thought into this, but thought i'd throw that out in the meantime.

You can certainly choose to behave as if something is true. That, however, does not mean that you will have an internal confidence that that thing is true. Hope also doesn't represent belief. Millions of people hope to win the lottery, but they don't believe they will win the lottery. You may take a risk because you believe you're likely to win, but that doesn't mean you decided to believe.

If God is omniscient, then (S)He knows my innermost thoughts. Thus I can't simply choose to believe because I'm better off being a believer. I need to change internally. One cannot expel honest doubt by using a cost-benefit analysis.

[Thaurismunths]

Speaking of Evolution: Macroevolution observed in bacteria.

WaHoo!! Lazerbeam eyes for everyone!
(or at least a small pocket of us with the correct lineage)

Seriously though, that is both great and terrifying. E-coli being able to jump like that is a terrifying thought for everyone who depends on antibiotics... and that's pretty much the whole world right now.

[wintermute]

The vast majority of E. coli are what yoghurt commercials like to call "friendly bacteria", living in your gut and breaking down food into something we can absorb. True, there are a few rogue strains that engage in shenanigans and bacteriological high jinx, but overall, we owe E. coli a high five.

And this particular mutation doesn't appear to cause a problem for antibiotics (unless anyone knows of any citrate-based antibiotics in common use?); they just learned how to eat something that was previously inedible.